From time to time Mike Caro “The mad poker genius” does columns where he talks about certain aspects of the game of poker. I found one where he talked about bluffing, and since I know many of you are fans of bluffing, I decided to distill the key points. First, the question is, is there a mathematical formula for when it’s optimal to bluff? And Caro answers: of course there is, but it gets complicated when there are so many casino hands out there and you’d have to run through each one of them, and basically your mind can’t handle it unless you’re using a software program. The correct answer is, playing perfect strategy poker. So he was asked, by himself, if he pays attention to the mathematics. “No,” he says, “none whatsoever.” One could make a game theorist strategy with all the variables to play against flawless online poker players, but the truth is, most players, hell, all players aren’t flawless. So such a strategy would be impractical. Instead Caro just goes in and, with odds in mind, makes sweeping adjustments to his game when put in a bluffing situation. Finally, he’s asked, what are the best players to bluff. 1.) don’t bluff an unknown player. 2.) Players who are too tight, though they’re rare in this day and age are profitable to bluff against. And 3.) Oddly, one of the best bluffs is against a frequent bluffer. Why? Well, if you know an opponent to bluff and you’ve read the bet as one, you can turn the whole table around by making the bet, taking the pot, and watching him tuck his tail and give you the pot. Simply put, bluffing the bluffer. And if he doesn’t fold, you’ve always got checkdown value and hope to win the showdown.
